Posted by Steve Turley ● May 18, 2020 6:12:11 PM
4 Reasons Trump is Poised to CRUSH the Democrats in November!!!
Has the mainstream media already effectively defeated President Trump come November?
That’s certainly the assessment of a number of these left-wing activists disguised as journalists, who have been busy these last several weeks deliberately attempting to convince American voters that Trump’s supposed incompetence is responsible for the pandemic’s spread, resulting in over 80,000 deaths. Peter Wehner of The Atlantic confidently asserted that Covid-19 signaled the official end to the Trump presidency. And Jennifer Rubin at The Washington Post published a piece claiming: “Trump’s damage is already done. He may not be able to save himself.”
However, not only are these liberal partisan hopes camouflaged as news misguided, but they are guilty of ignoring significant and potentially decisive developments and trends that together signal a massive Trump win in November.1. The Primary Model Prediction. Let’s begin with the single most accurate election forecasting model to date. It’s called the Primary Model, developed by the Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth. The model is a statistical algorithm that analyzes the results of presidential primaries. The algorithm has revealed that the popular vote winner in the primaries almost always goes on to win the general election. Norpoth bases such an observation by applying the algorithm to elections going all the way back to 1912, which was the first time candidates had to win primaries. And in almost every case (there was one exception), the winner as determined by the algorithm lined up with the actual winner from each election spanning over a hundred years. And yes, the Primary Model did indeed predict that Trump would beat Hillary Clinton in 2016!
So what is the predicted result for November? According to the election forecast model, Trump has a 91 percent chance of beating Joe Biden! To keep this in perspective, the model gave Trump an 87 percent chance of beating Hillary in 2016, which means of course that Trump is even more likely to win in 2020.2. The Polls. But wait! One might note that this Primary Model prediction was before the Covid-19 outbreak! What about now? Norpoth himself addressed this anomaly by stating that if support for Trump collapses, he may have to adjust the predictions. But far from any erosion, Norpoth found that support for Trump has actually increased since the pandemic. By mid-March, just a few weeks after the Trump administration began taking action against the coronavirus outbreak, Gallup showed the president with the highest approval rating of his presidency at 49 percent! And in case anyone thought such a spike in approval was a fluke, the latest Gallup poll has Trump tied with his highest approval, which turns out to be two points higher than Obama’s approval and three points higher than Bush’s at the same point in their respective presidencies.
Indeed, the polls must continue to astonish as well as demoralize the mainstream media, whose coverage of Trump was found to be 92 percent negative before the pandemic! CNN appeared rather embarrassed by their latest poll, that not only found Trump at his highest approval rating of his presidency, but also showed Trump trouncing Biden in the so-called Battleground States by seven points! Moreover, the latest Emerson College poll corroborates that Trump is indeed leading Biden in the swing state of Ohio. It has long been recognized that Ohio “picks the president”; given that John F. Kennedy was the last candidate to win the presidential election without the state, Ohio is a pretty reliable bellwether for who wins the presidency.3. GOP Sweep of Special Elections. As it turns out, we don’t have to rely on predictions and polls to assess the current state of the election; we had actual elections in the midst of the pandemic! Last week, Republican Mike Garcia flipped a Democrat-held seat in California’s 25th District, a district that voted for Hillary by seven points in 2016. It was the first time since 1998 that the GOP successfully flipped a congressional seat in California. And not only did Garcia win, but he won by over double digits, beating his Democrat opponent by 12 points! In the other special election in Wisconsin, the Trump-backed candidate Tom Tiffany crushed his Democrat opponent by a decisive 14 points.
But there was also a presidential primary held on that Tuesday in Nebraska. Trump got more than 242,000 votes, which more than doubled his vote total in that state for 2016. In fact, throughout the primaries, President Trump has been utterly smashing incumbent voting records. In New Hampshire, Trump won the state with nearly 130,000 votes, which was well over two times the vote share for the last incumbent seeking reelection, Barack Obama. In the Michigan primary, more than 637,000 voters came out to support President Trump, which dwarfs the 174,000 that voted for Obama in 2012.
4. Voter Enthusiasm. President Trump’s dominance in the primaries reflects an extraordinary voter enthusiasm rarely seen in an election year. In fact, when matched up against President Trump in terms of the level of enthusiasm voters have for their respective candidates, it’s frankly ugly for Joe Biden. Trump has an astonishing 19-point advantage in voter enthusiasm; he crushes Biden 64 percent to 45 percent! And when asked who they thought would win the election in November, it was a Trump blowout: 57 percent to 43 percent! Indeed, it gets worse! According to Scott Rasmussen’s most recent polling, things are so bad for the presumptive Democrat nominee that one in three Democrats want Biden replaced with a new candidate!
And so, while left-wing activists disguised as journalists continue to prognosticate on Trump’s inexorable demise, there are a number of developments and trends that signal a very different outcome several months from now. From the assessments of the most accurate election prediction model to massive voter enthusiasm and election-winning turnout, it appears more and more likely that we will see come November a crushing defeat for the Democratic candidate and a decisive re-election for President Trump.