Posted by Steve Turley ● Oct 20, 2020 10:22:26 PM
“If you look at the early vote-by-mail, this is a Trump landslide in the making!” So said Jesse Watters of Fox News the other night.
This is no exaggeration. The mail-in ballot and early voting results are fast becoming a nightmare scenario for Joe Biden, and certainly justify his recent decision to hide in his basement for the rest of the week!
Biden’s electoral strategy was simple: direct as many Democrat voters as possible to vote early with mail-in ballots, producing record numbers that would effectively negate the GOP’s historic high turnout with in-person voting, and then make up any deficits with late ballots trickling in during the days subsequent to November 3rd, resulting in an inevitable Biden win. However, the only way this strategy works is if there are small vote deficits after election day, which requires a massive Democrat lead going into November 3rd. The nightmare scenario would be Democrats underperforming 2016 early vote tallies while the GOP overperforms. With the returns coming in, it is just such a scenario that is appearing more and more likely.
As of Monday, October 19th, Biden was losing the state of Michigan to Trump, 40 percent to 38 percent! And this is assuming the Democrat ballots are all voting Biden; that’s a big assumption! While Trump got 94 percent of the Republican vote in the primaries (three times the vote share that Barack Obama – the last incumbent seeking reelection – got back in 2012). Biden, on the other hand, didn’t even break 10 percent of the vote in New Hampshire and was considered by many to be politically dead. This means we can’t be sure how many Democrats are actually voting for him! In Ohio, the Republicans are beating the Democrats 45 percent to 42 percent as of Tuesday the 20th. In Arizona, the GOP is beating the Democrats in early voting by over a hundred thousand votes! In North Carolina, the Republicans have closed the percentage gap with the Democrats over the last five straight days, knocking two points off the gap on Monday the 19th. In fact, the analysts over at JP Morgan forecast that President Trump is going to win Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina just by virtue of voter registration alone!
Speaking of Florida, Biden’s strategy is imploding in the Sunshine State. A quick glimpse of the Florida county-by-county electoral map shows a state covered in red. According to the analysis provided by Larry Schweikart, the key early voting benchmark Democrats need to overcome the GOP tsunami on election day is 650,000 votes. At this point, the Democrats have fallen short by over 200,000 votes! And we’re already seeing the Democrat lead shrink quite literally hourly! On Tuesday morning, between 8am and 11am, Republican in-person early voters knocked 10,000 votes off the Democrat lead, in just three hours! And the 15 or so counties that have yet to vote by virtue of in-person early voting are all Republican; so this is the pattern we can expect repeated for the next two weeks! Schweikart predicts that Trump is on course to win Florida by a quarter-of-a-million votes!
As the votes are coming in, we’re seeing a comparable surge for Trump in the polls. Trump on Tuesday had a 49 percent job approval according to Rasmussen, which puts him two points higher than where Obama was two weeks before he went on to win reelection rather handily. We’re seeing Trump closing the gap with Biden: the latest IBD poll now has Trump closing in on Biden by just two points. And the Trafalgar Group, the only polling company that correctly forecasted that Donald Trump was going to beat Hillary Clinton in Michigan, have President Trump now within one point of Biden in Pennsylvania, and they believe that Trump is in fact going to win the state.
So, while it remains to be seen if a Trump landslide is in the making, it’s no wonder that Joe Biden is hiding in his basement. His seeking shelter in a bunker seems most appropriate for a campaign that appears to be imploding.
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