Trump’s Poll Numbers SURGE as Democrats Begin to SELF-DESTRUCT!
Posted by Steve Turley ● Aug 3, 2020 9:58:57 PM
It was July of 2016. While pundits and pollsters were unanimously declaring the inevitability of a Hillary Clinton landslide in the upcoming November presidential election, a rather obscure professor from Stony Brook University had a very different take: his election forecasting model predicted that Donald Trump had an 87 percent chance of defeating Clinton. Few people knew of Professor Helmut Norpoth back then, and even fewer knew of his Primary Model, a statistical algorithm that predicted correctly the winner of 22 of the last 24 presidential elections. That’s going all the way back to 1912! Given the Primary Model’s rather uncanny predictive accuracy, it’s rather astonishing that Norpoth has yet to be contacted by CNN or MSNBC for his 2020 prediction! But perhaps that’s because the Primary Model gives President Trump a 91 percent chance of beating Joe Biden, which means of course that Trump is even more likely to win in 2020 than he was in 2016.
Needless to say, for those familiar with Norpoth and his predictive model, the surging poll numbers for Donald Trump are no surprise. The latest Rasmussen poll has trump at 51 percent approval, 7 points higher than Obama at this point in his presidency. Such poll numbers are all the more remarkable given the radically and absurdly negative coverage Trump receives on an hourly basis from the mainstream media. In fact, the Media Research Center conducted a study that found that 92 percent of the media’s coverage of President Trump was decisively negative, the mirror opposite of the fawning coverage that daily accompanied the Obama presidency. But Rasmussen isn’t an outlier. The latest Democracy Institute poll has Trump beating Biden by a margin of 48 percent to 46 percent, with Trump leading by a healthy five points in crucial swing states like Florida, Iowa, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The aggregate polling average from Real Clear Politics has Trump’s approval at nearly 44 percent, which is about 4 points higher from just last week and just two points shy of the magic 46 percent to win reelection. Clearly Trump’s popularity is surging.
And whither Joe Biden? Well, to put it bluntly, he’s hiding in his basement. It’s no secret that his team knows that he is a disaster of a candidate; he’s too physically weak to travel and too cognitively declined to think on this feet and take questions from the media. In fact, a recent Zogby poll found that 55 percent of those surveyed believed that Biden was in the early stages of dementia! And to add insult to Biden’s injury, the latest YouGov poll shows a 30 percent deficit in voter enthusiasm when compared to Trump supporters.
While Biden appears to be withering, the Democrat Party is in the process of self-destructing with the onslaught of not one but two civil wars from within their ranks. On one front, you have the Bernie rebellion. Biden was recently broadsided by Bernie Sanders’ delegates who are demanding that Biden embrace Medicare for all. At least 360 Democratic delegates, mostly Bernie supporters, have signed a pledge to oppose the Democratic platform unless it endorses a single-payer Medicare system. But the delegates are not the only Bernie supporters threatening a mass exodus. The Bernie Bros may indeed be the real threat to the Biden campaign, the Bernie Bros being a term coined back in the 2016 campaign designating the young male supporters attracted to Sanders’ leftist populist message. The thing that’s worrying Democrat strategists right now is how to prevent what some are calling a Broxit, a mass exodus from the Democrat Party by the Bernie Bros. This is a real concern; back in 2016, 12 percent of Bernie supporters voted for Trump over Hillary Clinton, and it’s looking even worse for 2020. An ABC News/Washington Post poll found that a full 15 percent of Bernie Sanders supporters said that they do indeed plan on casting their vote for President Trump in November. And as all this is happening, the co-chair of Bernie Sanders’ campaign, a woman by the name of Nina Turner, actually came out and compared voting for Joe Biden in November to “eating a bowl of sh*t”!
But the Bernie rebellion is not the only front in the emerging Democrat civil war. There’s a menacing second front appearing, and that of course is the increasing battle between Black Lives Matter activists and the white liberal leadership of the Democrat Party. After Biden came out and made the ridiculous statement that Trump was the first racist president to get elected, the black activist Charlamagne Tha God (the one who interviewed Biden when he made his now infamous ‘You’re not black!’ gaffe) came out and said: “I really wish Joe Biden would shut the eff up forever and continue to act like he's starring in the movie 'A Quiet Place' because as soon as he opens his mouth and makes noise, he gets us all killed …” Indeed, Black Lives Matter activists are becoming increasingly vocal in their denunciation of white liberals. At a recent rally in Los Angeles, Pan African Studies professor Melina Abdullah, the co-founder of Black Lives Matter LA, denounced the city of Los Angeles as filled with what she called “liberal white supremacists.” Even Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has a certain fondness for accusing Nancy Pelosi of racism.
But more than that, the Democrats’ championing of the race riots and their collective refusal to denounce the horrific destruction and violence inflicted throughout our nation’s already dilapidated urban neighborhoods may itself have doomed them for November. A relatively recent study from Princeton University shows that acts of civil violence and destruction have the effect of making America more conservative. The study examined the political ramifications of the 137 violent protests that followed Martin Luther King, Jr.’s assassination in April of 1968, and it found that if your county was proximate to the riots, then that county voted six to eight percentage points more for the Republican candidate in that year’s presidential election than in the previous election in 1964.
It’s therefore no surprise that after weeks of looting and rioting and destruction, President Trump is surging in the polls. It’s also no surprise to see Biden begin to sink as the Democrats implode under the weight of two Democrat civil wars. As things are shaping up, it does appear that Professor Helmut Norpoth and his Primary Model will, like in 2016, have the last laugh in 2020.